Awards Season By The Numbers

Oscar Predictions

by Phil Contrino

posted February 20, 2009 8:57 AM

Hint: Slumdog Millionaire is going to do very well this Sunday.

Winners in bold.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

To quote the film itself, "It is written." Whether or not we'll remember this movie 20 years from now is definitely a question worth asking...

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Still so hard to chose between Penn and Rourke. It's the closest thing we have to a coin flip this year.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

It's Kate Winslet's year and nothing's going to stop that. I would be incredibly surprised if Meryl Streep pulled an upset here.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

This will be the authoritative acknowledgment of a brilliant performance.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

This is one of the toughest categories to pick. I'm playing it safe and going with the "favorite" to win.

Best Director
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

There will be no split between Best Director and Best Picture this year.

Best Foreign-language Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Revanche, Austria
Waltz with Bashir, Israel

It's been the favorite for a long time.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
David Hare, The Reader
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Another almost guaranteed win for Slumdog.

Best Original Screenplay
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter, WALL-E

Even though Milk is a leading contender in a handful of categories, this is the award that it should walk away with.

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

WAAAAAALLLLLL-E!


Best Art Direction

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

The Academy goes nuts for period pieces in this category.

Best Cinematography
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

It won the Cinematographer's Guild award, which is the best endorsement in this case.

Best Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

When it comes to tech awards, always pick the most successful blockbuster.

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

See previous category.

Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard, Defiance
Danny Elfman, Milk
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, WALL-E

There's no stopping Slumdog...


Best Original Song

"Down to Earth" from WALL-E, Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman and Gulzar
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Bruce Springsteen! Oh, that's right, he's not nominated. The Slumdog juggernaut moves forward...

Best Costume Design
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Another category where period pieces rule.

Best Documentary Feature
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

It has won every single major documentary award, which means that it's the definition of a lock.

Documentary (short subject)
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness -- From the Balcony of Room 306

I'm just throwing a dart at the board here...

Best Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Slumdog won the major editing guild award.


Makeup

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Even though it's been nominated 13 times, this will probably be one of the film's only wins.

Best Animated Short
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory -- Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

This is the short that played in front of WALL-E. Mainstream or not, it's still the best of the bunch.

Best Live Action Shot
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

The emotionally appealing film of the bunch.

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Since Knight director Christopher Nolan doesn't use special effects that often, this won will go to Benjamin Button, which is a seamless visual effects accomplishment.

1 Comments

Brockway said:

My predictions look the exact same only I'm going with Toyland for Live-Action Short (Can't go wrong with the Holocaust film) and Wall-E for Sound Mixing/Editing (Ben Burtt is a ****ing genius).

But otherwise, you have it on the money Mr. Contrino.

February 22, 2009 2:03 PM

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