There won't be many surprises at the Oscars this year. Anybody who pays serious attention to the awards season has known this for several weeks. With that said, there's one major race that I would still consider to be relatively wide open. That's the one for Best Supporting Actress. Unfortunately, that's usually the first award handed out during the ceremony so there won't be much suspense.

The five nominees are: Penélope Cruz (Vicky Crisitina Barcelona), Viola Davis (Doubt), Amy Adams (Doubt), Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) and Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button). If Kate Winslet was nominated in this category for her performance in The Reader, like she was at the Golden Globes, then she would be a lock. As it stands now, the consensus is that Cruz is the favorite for her volatile performance in VCB. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if any of these fine actresses were to walk away with the prize. At one point in the season Davis was considered to be the favorite for her highly effective one-scene performance, but she could be canceled out by the presence of Adams. Everybody loves Amy Adams and she'll probably receive her share of votes.

Even though she's completely deserving of some recognition on her own, Marisa Tomei could ride to victory on the coattails of Mickey Rourke. If Tomei wins early in the night, then you can probably call it a win for Rourke as well. Henson, who has been crowned the favorite by expert stat cruncher Nate Silver, will be brought down by the fact that despite 13 nominations, there simply is not a lot of support for Benjamin Button. It's the kind of movie that people appreciate more than they enjoy. Plus, it does have more than its share of enthusiastic detractors.

In the end, the smart bet is on Cruz but prepare to be surprised.